D. Dutta, P.O. Hopcroft, T. Aubry, X. Zhang & F. Muschitiello et al. State-Dependent Response to Volcanic Clusters in the Subpolar North Atlantic. In preparation.

P.O. Hopcroft, P. Behnaz, J. Lindstrom, K.K. Goldewijk, A. Dawson, J. Kaplan, F. Li & M.-J. Gaillard. Surface temperature response to Holocene land-use scenarios. In preparation.

P.O. Hopcroft, D.-D. Rousseau et al. Model evidence for distinct origins of glacial-interglacial and millennial signals in Greenland dust, submitted.

M. Verkerk, T. Aubry, C. Smith, P.O. Hopcroft, M. Sigl, J. Tierney, K. Anchukaitis, M. Osman, A. Schmidt & M. Toohey. Using reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol and climate models to produce large ensemble simulations of Holocene temperature, Climate of the Past, in review. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3635.

Z. Lu, A. Schultze, M. Carre, C. Brierley, P.O. Hopcroft, D. Zhao, M. Zheng, P. Braconnot, Q. Yin, J. Jungclaus, X. Shi, H. Yang & Q. Zhang. Enhanced frequency of multi-year El Niño-Southern Oscillation across the Holocene, Nature Geoscience, in revision.

D.-D. Rousseau, C. Chauvel, P.O. Hopcroft, P. Gutierrez, S. Saulnier-Copard, P. Antoine, M. Fuchs and A. Ustrzycka. An African source for the fine dust in European loess during the Last Glacial Maximum, Communications Earth & Environment, in review.

M. Saunois, A. Martinez, B. Poulter, Zhen Zhang, Peter Raymond, Pierre Regnier, Joseph G. Canadell, Prabir K. Patra, Philippe Bousquet, Robert B. Jackson, Philippe Ciais, Edward J. Dlugokencky, Xin Lan, George H. Allen, David Bastviken, David J. Beerling, Dmitry A. Belikov, Donald R. Blake, Simona Castaldi, Monica Crippa, Bridget R. Deemer, Fraser Dennison, Giuseppe Etiope, Nicola Gedney, Lena Höglund- Isaksson, Meredith A. Holgerson, P.O. Hopcroft, Gustaf Hugelius, Akihito Ito, Atul K. Jain, Rajesh Janardanan, Matthew S. Johnson, Thomas Kleinen, Paul Krummel, Ronny Lauerwald, Tingting Li, Xiangyu Liu, Shamil Maksyutov, Kyle C. McDonald, Joe R. Melton, Jens Mühle, Jurek Müller, Fabiola Murguia-Flores, Yosuke Niwa, Sergio Noce, Shufen Pan, Robert J. Parker, Changhui Peng, Michel Ramonet, William J. Riley, Gerard Rocher-Ros, Judith A. Rosentreter, Motoki Sasakawa, Arjo Segers, Steven J. Smith, Emily H. Stanley, Joel Thanwerdas, Hanquin Tian, Aki Tsuruta, Francesco N. Tubiello, Thomas S. Weber, Guido van der Werf, Doug E. Worthy, Yi Xi, Yukio Yoshida, Wenxin Zhang, Bo Zheng, Qing Zhu, Qiuan Zhu, and Qianlai Zhuang. Global Methane Budget 2000-2020, Earth System Science Data, in revision.

Q. Zhu, K. Yuan, F. Li, WJ. Riley, A. Hoyt, R. Jackson, G. McNicol, M. Chen, S. Knox, O. Briner, D. Beerling, N. Gedney, P.O. Hopcroft, A. Ito, A. K. Jain, K. Jensen, T. Kleinen, T. Li, X. Liu, K. C. McDonald, J. R. Melton, P. Miller, J. Muller, C. Peng, B. Poulter, Z. Qin, S. Peng, H. Tian, X. Xu, Y. Yao, X. Yi, Z Zhang, W. Zhang, Q. Zhu, Q. Zhuang. Critical Needs to Close Monitoring Gaps in Pan-Tropical Wetland CH4 Emissions, Env Res Lett, 19, 114046, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8019.

Z. Zhang, B. Poulter, J. R. Melton, W. J. Riley, G. Allen, D. Beerling, P. Bousquet, J. Canadell, E. Fluet-Chouinard, P. Ciais, N. Gedney, P.O. Hopcroft, A. Ito, R. Jackson, A. Jain, K. Jensen, F. Joos, T. Kleinen, S. Knox, T. Li, X. Liu, K. McDonald, G. McNicol, P. Miller, J. Muller, P. Patra, C. Peng, S. Peng, Z. Qin, R. Riggs, M. Saunois, Q. Sun, H. Tian, X. Xu, Y, Yao, X. Yi, W. Zhang, Q. Zhu, Q. Zhu and Q. Zhuang. Ensemble estimate of global wetland methane emissions over 2000-2020, Biogeosciences, 22, 305–321, doi: 10.5194/bg-22-305-2025.

M. Trauth, A. Asrat, M. Fischer, P.O. Hopcroft, V. Foerster, S. Kaboth-Bahr, K. Kindermann, H. Lamb, Marwan, M. Maslin, F. Schaebitz & P. Valdes. Early Warning Signals for the Termination of the African Humid Period, Nature Communications, 15:3697, doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-47921-1 .

C. Krause, A. Kimbrough, M. Gagan, P.O. Hopcroft, G. Dunbar, W. Hantoro, J. Hellstrom, H. Cheng, R. L. Edwards, H. Wong, B. Suwargadi, P. Valdes & H. Rifai (2024). Tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane over the last 40,000 years from model simulations and stalagmites in Sulawesi, Indonesia. Quaternary Research, 1-16, doi: 10.1017/qua.2023.75 .

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, B. Shuman, M. Toohey & M. Sigl (2023). Relative importance of forcings and feedbacks for the Holocene temperature conundrum, Quaternary Science Reviews, 319, 108322, doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41219-4

E. Armstrong, M. Tallavaara, P.O. Hopcroft & P. Valdes (2023). North African Humid Periods over the past 800000 years, Nature Communications, 14:5549, doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41219-4

A. Ito, T. Li, Z. Qin, J. Melton, H. Tian, T. Kleinen, W. Zhang, Z. Zhang, F. Joos, P. Ciais, P.O. Hopcroft, D. Beerling, X. Liu, Q. Zhuang, Q. Zhu, C. Peng, K.-Y. Chang, E. Fluet-Chouinard, G. McNicol, P. Patra, B. Poulter & S. Sitch (2023). Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH4 models, Geophysical Research Letters, 50, 14, e2023GL103037, doi: 10.1029/2023GL103037

P.O. Hopcroft & K. Gallagher (2023). Global variability in multi-century ground warming inferred from geothermal data, Geophysical Research Letters, 50, 13, e2023GL104631, doi: 10.1029/2023GL104631

Z. Jiang, C. Brierley, J. Bader, P. Braconnot, M. Erb, P.O. Hopcroft, D. Jiang, J. Jungclaus, V. Khon, G. Lohmann, O. Marti, M. Osman, B. Otto-Bliesner, B. Schneider, X. Shi, D. Thornalley, Z. Tian & Q. Zhang (2023). No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL103078, doi: 10.1029/2023GL103078

P.O. Hopcroft, S. Pichat, P.J. Valdes and S. Kienast (2023). Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL101197, doi: 10.1029/2022GL101197

T. Askjaer, Q. Zhang, F. Schenk, F. Ljungqvist, Z. Luo C. Brierley, P.O. Hopcroft, J. Jungclaus, X. Shi, G. Lohmann, W. Sun, J. Liu, P. Braconnot, B. Otto-Bliesner, Z. Wu, Q. Yin and H. Yang (2022). Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations, Quaternary Science Reviews, in press, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107801

P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes (2022). Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene, Environmental Research Letters, 17, 085001, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7c2b

T. Aubry, J. Farquharson, C. Rowell, S. Watt, V. Pinel, F. Beckett, J. Fasullo, P. O. Hopcroft, D. Pyle, A. Schmidt and J. Staunton Sykes (2022). Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges, Bulletin of Volcanology, 84:58, doi: 10.1007/s00445-022-01562-8.

P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes (2021). Palaeoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118 (45) e2108783118, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108783118.

C. Williams, A. Sellar, X. Ren, A. Haywood, P.O. Hopcroft, S. Hunter, W. Roberts, R. Smith, E. Stone, J. Tindall, and D. Lunt (2021). Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison, Climate of the Past, 17, 2139-2163, doi: 10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes and W. Ingram (2021). Using the mid-Holocene 'greening' of the Sahara to narrow acceptable ranges on climate model parameters, Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (6), e2020GL092043, doi: 10.1029/2020GL092043.

P.O. Hopcroft, G. Ramstein, T.A.M. Pugh, S.J. Hunter, F. Murguia-Flores, A. Quiquet, Y. Sun, N. Tan and P.J. Valdes (2020). Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117 (38), 23401-23407, doi: 10.1073/pnas.2002320117. Supporting Information.pdf.

W. Roberts and P.O. Hopcroft (2020). Controls on the tropical response to abrupt climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 45(6), e2020GL087518, doi: 10.1029/2020GL087518.

E. Armstrong, P.O. Hopcroft and P.Valdes (2019). Reassessing the value of regional climate modelling using palaeoclimate simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 46(21), 12464-12475, doi: 10.1029/2019GL085127.

E. Armstrong, P.O. Hopcroft and P.Valdes (2019). A Northern Hemisphere simulated land climate dataset for the past 60,000 years, Scientific Data, 6, 265, doi: 10.1038/s41597-019-0277-1.

L. Sime, P.O. Hopcroft and R. Rhodes (2019). Impact of abrupt sea ice loss on Greenland water isotopes during the Last Glacial Period, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116 (10), 4099-4104, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1807261116.

P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes (2019). On the role of dust-climate feedbacks during the mid-Holocene, Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 3, 1612-1621, doi: 10.1029/2018GL080483.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes and J.O. Kaplan (2018). Bayesian analysis of the glacial-interglacial methane increase constrained by stable isotopes and Earth System modelling, Geophysical Research Letters, 45(8), 3653-3663, doi: 10.1002/2018GL077382.

M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S.P. Harrison, A.M. Haywood, J. Jungclaus, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Albani, P.J. Bartlein, C. Brierley, M. Crucifix, A. Dolan, L. Fernandez-Donado, H. Fischer, P.O. Hopcroft, R.F. Ivanovic, F. Lambert, D.J. Lunt, N.M. Mahowald, W.R. Peltier, S.J. Phipps, D.M. Roche, G.A. Schmidt, L. Tarasov, P.J. Valdes, Q. Zhang, and T. Zhou (2018). PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6, Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1033-1057, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018.

P.O. Hopcroft, J. Kandlbauer, P.J. Valdes and R.S.J. Sparks (2018). Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions, Climate Dynamics, 51: 1449-1463, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3964-7.

M. Kageyama, S. Albani, P. Braconnot, S. Harrison, P.O. Hopcroft, R. Ivanovic, F. Lambert, O. Marti, W. Peltier, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, D. Roche, L. Tarasov, X. Zhang, E. Brady, A. Haywood, A. LeGrande, D. Lunt, N. Mahowald, U. Mikolajewicz, K. Nisancioglu, B. Otto-Bliesner, H. Renssen, R. Tomas, Q. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, P. Bartlein, J. Cao, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, X. Shi, E. Volodin, K. Yoshida, X. Zhang, and W. Zheng (2017). The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 4035-4055, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017.

P.J. Valdes, E. Armstrong, M. Badger, C. Bradshaw, F. Bragg, M. Crucifix, T. Davies-Barnard, J.J. Day, A. Farnsworth, C. Gordon, P.O. Hopcroft, A. Kennedy, N. Lord, D. Lunt, A. Marzocchi, L. Parry, V. Pope, W. Roberts, E. Stone, G. Tourte, and J. Williams (2017). The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0, Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 3715-3743: doi:10.5194/gmd-10-3715-2017.

P.O. Hopcroft (2017). Atmospheric science: Ancient ice and the global methane cycle (News and Views), Nature, 548, 403-404, doi:10.1038/548403a.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, A.B. Harper and D.J. Beerling (2017). Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime, Geophysical Research Letters, 44(13), 6804-6813, doi:10.1002/2017GL073740.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, F.M. O'Connor, J.O. Kaplan and D.J. Beerling (2017). Understanding the glacial methane cycle, Nature Communications, 8, 14383, doi:10.1038/ncomms14383. pdf Cabot Institute Research News Met Office Research News

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, S. Woodward and M. Joshi (2015). Last glacial maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth System model, Journal of Geophysical Research, 120(16), 8186-8205, doi:10.1002/2015JD023742. Supporting Information: pdf

P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes (2015). How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?, Geophysical Research Letters, 42(13), 5533-5539, doi:10.1002/2015GL064903. Supporting Information: pdf. Data points underlying figure 1: fig1.dat

P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes (2014). Last Glacial Maximum constraints on the Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES, Climate Dynamics, 45(5), 1657-1672, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2421-0.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, R. Wania and D.J. Beerling (2014). Limited response of peatland CH4 emissions to abrupt Atlantic Ocean circulation changes in glacial climates, Climate of the Past, 10, 137-154, doi:10.5194/cp-10-137-2014.

J. Kandlbauer, P. O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes and R.S.J. Sparks (2013). Climate and carbon cycle response to the 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption, Journal of Geophysical Research, 118(22), 12497-12507, doi:10.1002/2013JD019767.

B. Ringeval, P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. , A.J. Dolman and M. Kageyama (2013). Response of methane emissions from wetlands to the Last Glacial Maximum and an idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger climate event: Insights from two models of different complexity, Climate of the Past, 9, 149-171, doi:10.5194/cp-9-149-2013.

A. M. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. D. Friend, F. Aires, A. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. R. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P.O. Hopcroft, C. D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. G. Levine, I. C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vazquez Riveiros, E. W. Wolff, and S. Zaehle (2013). Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo observations: the state-of-the-art, Biogeosciences, 10, 8305-8328, doi:10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013.

R. Wania, J. R. Melton, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, P. O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, J. S. Singarayer, S. Zurcher, D. P. Lettenmaier, D. J. Beerling, S. N. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa, and J. O. Kaplan (2013). Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model intercomparison project (WETCHIMP), Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 617-641, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-617-2013.

J. R. Melton, R. Wania, E. L. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. J. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. S. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zurcher, V. Brovkin, P. M. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. C. Yu, and J. O. Kaplan, (2013). Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model intercomparison project (WETCHIMP), Biogeosciences, 10, 753-788, doi:10.5194/bg-10-753-2013.

J.G. Levine, E.W. Wolff, P.O. Hopcroft, and P.J. Valdes (2012). Controls on the tropospheric oxidizing capacity during an idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger event, and their implications for the rapid rises in atmospheric methane during the last glacial period, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L12805, 10.1029/2012GL051866.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes and D.J. Beerling (2011). Simulating idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their potential impacts on the global methane cycle, Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 23-24, 3258-3268, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.08.01.

P.O. Hopcroft (2009), New Methods for Inferring Past Climatic Changes from Underground Temperatures, PhD Thesis, Imperial College London. pdf.

P.O. Hopcroft, K. Gallagher and C. Pain (2009). A Bayesian Partition Modelling approach to resolve spatial variability in climate records from borehole temperature inversion , Geophysical Journal International, 178, 2, 651-666, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04192.x.

P.O. Hopcroft, K. Gallagher, C. Pain and F. Fang (2009). Three-dimensional simulation and inversion of borehole temperatures for reconstructing past climate in complex settings, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, F02019, doi:10.1029/2008JF001165.

P.O. Hopcroft, K. Gallagher and C. Pain (2007). Inference of past climate from borehole temperature data using Bayesian Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, Geophysical Journal International, 171(3), 1430-1439, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03596.x.