The following are a subset of papers produced by the BRIDGE group which have simulation data stored at this site. Currenty only output from the Hadley Centre model are available.
The web pages give you access to three types of information.
Please note that in most cases, the actual analysis and plots that appear in the paper have been done using more detailed and sophisticated tools than are availabe over the web so you may not be able to perfectly reproduce the figures in the paper.
These webpages give you the ability to examine published simulations, but you can also download the raw (netcdf) files to perform your own analysis. Detailed instructions on how to use the webpages and access the data can be found here: Using_BRIDGE_webpages.pdf
Click on the links to get more details of the paper and associated simulations.
If you use these results in further work, we ask that you fully reference the original papers AND WE STRONGLY prefer and encourage you to get in touch with the named owner of the results. This may be the lead author, the person who performed the simulations, or the academic staff member who maintains the long term ownership of the model data. They will be able to help and advise you on the use of these simulations and hence ensure that you do not mis-interpret the results. Hopefully, this will greatly improve the quality of any resulting papers.
| Authors | Year | Title | Journal | Brief Description | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armstrong et al. | 2019 | A simulated Northern Hemisphere land based climate dataset for the past 60,000 years | Scientific Data | This paper presents a continuous land-based climate reconstruction dataset extending back 60 kyr from the pre-industrial period | Edward Armstrong edward.armstrong@bristol.ac.uk |
| Armstrong et al. | 2019 | Reassessing the value of regional climate modelling using palaeoclimate simulations | Geophysical Research Letters | This paper compares a regional climate model (RCM) against a low and high resolution global model (GCM and HR-GCM) using palaeoclimate simulations, showing that the HR-GCM simulates a different climatology due to difference in model dynamics. | Edward Armstrong edward.armstrong@bristol.ac.uk |
| Armstrong et al. 2021 | 2021 | Identifying the mechanisms of DO-scale oscillations in a GCM: The salt oscillator triggered by the Laurentide ice sheet | Climate Dynamics | This paper investigates stochastic DO-scale variability in a GCM, driven by a North Atlantic salt oscillator triggered by the Laurentide ice sheet. | Edward Armstrong edward.armstrong@bristol.ac.uk |
| Armstrong et al. | 2023 | North African Humid Periods over the past 800000 years – Timing, Amplitude and Forcing | Nature Communications | This paper investigates the timing and mechanisms of North African Humid Periods over the past 800kyrs. They are paced by precession, however during glacials there amplitude is suppressed by extensive ice sheets. | Edward Armstrong edward.armstrong@helsinki.fi / edward.armstrong@bristol.ac.uk |
| Armstrong et al. | 2024 | Orbital forcing of African hydroclimate over the past 800,000 years | Nature Communications | This paper investigates the primary impact of orbital forcing on African hydroclimate throughout the mid-late Quaternary in proxies and models. | Edward Armstrong edward.armstrong@helsinki.fi / edward.armstrong@bristol.ac.uk |
| Beerling et al | 2012 | Ecosystem CO2 starvation and terrestrial silicate weathering: mechanisms and global-scale quantification during the late Miocene | Journal of Ecology | This paper supports the idea of terrestrial vegetation acting as a negative feedback mechanism that counteracts substantial declines in [CO2]a. | Catherine Bradshaw C.Bradshaw@bristol.ac.uk |
| Bradshaw et al | 2012 | The relative roles of CO2 and palaeogeography in determining late Miocene climate: results from a terrestrial model data comparison | Climate of the Past | This paper demonstrates that both the CO2 concentration and the palaeogeography of the late Miocene may contribute to precipitation differences, but that only higher CO2 contributes to temperature differences. | Catherine Bradshaw C.Bradshaw@bristol.ac.uk |
| Bradshaw et al 2021 | 2021 | Hydrological impact of Middle Miocene Antarctic ice-free areas coupled to deep ocean temperatures | Nature Geoscience | Exposing ice-free land on Antarctica causes changes in the hydrological cycle that inhibit deep ocean ventilation, helping to explain the rapid large fluctuations in deep ocean temperature reconstructed during the Middle Miocene. | Catherine Bradshaw Catherine.Bradshaw@metoffice.gov.uk |
| Chen et al 2025 | 2025 | The role of the North American continent in strengthening the Asian monsoon | North American continent strengthens the Asian summer monsoon | Linlin Chen linlin.chen@bristol.ac.uk |
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| Chiarenza 2022 et al | 2022 | Deep-time latitudinal range dynamics in non-marine turtles are coupled with global climate | Current Biology | Deep-time latitudinal range dynamics in non-marine turtles are coupled with global climate | Alex Farnsworth alex.farnsworth@bristol.ac.uk |
| Davies-Barnard et al. | 2014 | Sensitivity of a coupled climate model to canopy interception capacity | Climate Dynamics | Here we present the first research exploring the sensitivity of the climate and surface hydrology to a realistic range of canopy interception capacity parameter values, taken from the literature. We show that this previously ignored parameter significantly affects the mean annual global temperature as much as -0.64 K and locally up to -1.9 K. | T Davies-Barnard t.davies-barnard@bristol.ac.uk |
| Davies-Barnard et al. | 2017 | Quantifying the Influence of the Terrestrial Biosphere on Glacial-interglacial Climate Dynamics | Climate of the Past | This paper is the first model analysis using a fully-coupled dynamic atmosphere-ocean-vegetation GCM over the last 120 ka that quantifies the net effect of vegetation on climate. This analysis shows that over the whole period the biogeophysical is the dominant effect, and that the biogeochemical impacts may have a lower possible range than typically estimated. | T Davies-Barnard t.davies-barnard@bristol.ac.uk |
| Dunne et al | ? | CLIMATIC DRIVERS OF LATITUDINAL VARIATION IN LATE TRIASSIC TETRAPOD DIVERSITY | Palaeontology | Deep time latitudinal biodiversity gradients (LBG) are highly uncertain. Here using novel methods we reconstruct LBG for the Late Triassic to assess tetrapod diversity and drivers impacting them. | Alex Farnsworth alex.farnsworth@bristol.ac.uk |
| Farnsworth et al | 2019 | Climate sensitivity on geological timescales controlled by non-linear feedbacks and ocean circulation | Geophysical Research Letters | Climate sensitivity on geological timescales depends on continental configuration. Ocean area and ocean circulation non-linearly determine climate and climate sensitivity. Past climate sensitivity is not necessarily a good analogue for future climate sensitivity | Dan Lunt d.j.lunt@bristol.ac.uk |
| Farnsworth et alb | 2019 | Past East Asian monsoon evolution controlled by paleogeography, not CO2 | Geophysical Research Letters | Climate sensitivity on geological timescales depends on continental configuration. Ocean area and ocean circulation non-linearly determine climate and climate sensitivity. Past climate sensitivity is not necessarily a good analogue for future climate sensitivity | Alex Farnsworth alex.farnsworth@bristol.ac.uk |
| Gregoire et al | 2010 | Optimal tuning of a GCM using modern and glacial constraints | Climate Dynamics | This paper uses present day and glacial climates to objectively tune a low resoltuion version of the Hadley Centre model. We show that adding glacial constraints can improve the simulations. | Lauren Gregoire Lauren.gregoire@bristol.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft and Valdes | 2019 | On the role of dust-climate feedbacks during the mid-Holocene | Geophysical Research Letters | This paper reports HadGEM2-ES atmosphere-only simulations of the pre-industrialand mid-Holocene (6ka) with and without (*) the radiative effects of mineral dust and including 2 alternative formulations of the model in which the optical properties are changed to Deepak & Gerber, 1983 values (DG83) and the size range is restricted to a maximum of 1um with DG83 optical propreties. Simulations are also run for the mid-Holocene with a fully vegetation Sahara (GS). | Peter O. Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft and Valdes | 2014 | Last glacial maximum constraints on the Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES | Climate Dynamics | This paper demonstrates an example of improving an Earth System model by confronting it with reconstructions of LGM environmental conditions. Specifically we document improvements made to the dynamic vegetation scheme which have major impacts on the resultant LGM climate and dust cycle. | Peter O. Hopcroft peter.hopcroft@bristol.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft and Valdes | 2021 | Palaeoclimate conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping poing | PNAS | This paper presents 4 transient Holocene simulations with the coupled HadCM3-M21d model. Four different configurations test the role of palaeo-climate informed updates to the parameterisations for convection and vegetation, and the two together. The results show how these can improve the simulation of the abrupt desertification of the Sahara during the Holocene which most GCMs have failed to replicate before. | Peter Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft and Valdes | 2022 | Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene | Environmental Research Letters | This paper presents 5 transient Holocene simulations with the coupled HadCM3-M21d model. Five different sets of forcings are applied. The base configuration is equivalent to the optimised transient simulation presented in Hopcroft & Valdes, 2021, PNAS. | Peter Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft et al | 2011 | Simulating idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their potential impacts on the global methane cycle | Quaternary Science Reviews | We perform a series of freshwater hosing experiments with a coupled cilmate model to mimic climate changes during Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age. We use these scenarios to force a terrestrial ecosystem model of biogeochemical trace gas emissions of methane and isoprene. The results are compared with the ice-core record, which shows large amplitude jumps of CH4 for these events. The model underestimates the magnitude of these abrupt changes. | Peter O. Hopcroft peter.hopcroft@bristol.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft et al | 2015 | Last glacial maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth System model | Journal of Geophysical Research | We performed atmosphere-aerosol-vegetation simulations with HadGEM2-A for the pre-industrial and last glacial maximum using two different emissions schemes for mineral dust. CLASSIC: which is used in HadGEM2-ES and DEAD which is used in CCSM4. | Peter O. Hopcroft peter.hopcroft@bristol.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft et al | 2017 | Understanding the glacial methane cycle | Nature Communications | This paperincludes a set of simulations with HadGEM2-ES with an interactive methane cycle looking at the natural change in methane from 375ppbv during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to 680ppbv during the late Holocene pre-industrial. | Peter O. Hopcroft peter.hopcroft@bristol.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft et al | 2018 | Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions | Climate Dynamics | This paper reports HadGEM2-ES simulations of a hypothetical future eruption matching the 1815 Tambora eruption, but in the year 2045 and under the RCP6.0 scenario. We find that the eruption-induced cooling is less in the future, because the effective radiative forcing from the eruption is less due to the increase in tropospheric aerosol burden in the future relative to the pre-industrial. | Peter O. Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft and Valdes | 2018 | Bayesian Analysis of the Glacial-Interglacial Methane Increase Constrained by Stable Isotopes and Earth System Modelling | Geophysical Research Letters | These are HadGEM2-ES atmosphere-only simualtions including the internal leaf CO2 partial pressure as an output. | Peter O. Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft et al | 2021 | Using the mid-Holocene greening of the Sahara to narrow acceptable ranges on climate model parameters | Geophysical Research Letters | This archive contains the climatologies of 150 member perturbed parameter ensemble of pre-industrial, mid-Holocene and 2xCO2 simulations with a modified version of HadAM3. | Peter O. Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Hopcroft et al | 2022 | Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes | submitted | This dataset comprises atmosphere-only simulations with HadGEM2-ES for the glacial with prescribed anomalies of sea-surface temperature and sea-ice based on freshwater hosing simulations with HadCM3. The resultant impacts on the tropical mineral dust cycle are analysed in reference to Heinrich Stadial 1 when many marine sediment cores show dustier conditions. | Peter Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Huntley et al | 2022 | Global biome patterns of the Middle and Late Pleistocene | J. Biogeogr. | Our simulations support the hypothesis that we sought to assess, albeit that they identify atmospheric carbon dioxide, rather than northern hemisphere summer insolation, as the strongest driver of the changing biome patterns. Our results also support the hypothesis that past biome extents played a key role in determining their present diversity. Past global biome pattern dissimilarity shows the loglinear relationship to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration expected of an index of ecocarbon sensitivity. Potential future biome patterns are unlike any during the past 800 ky, and likely to continue to change markedly for millennia if projected CO2 concentrations are realised. | Paul Valdes P.J.Valdes@bristol.ac.uk |
| Ivanovic et al | 2014 | Sensitivity of modern climate to the presence, strength and salinity of Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange in a global General Circulation Model | Climate Dynamics | This paper examines the effect of changes to the exchange rate and salinity of Mediterranean Outflow Water on North Atlantic Ocean circulation and global-scale climate | Ruza Ivanovic r.ivanovic@leeds.ac.uk |
| Ivanovic et al | 2013 | The parameterisation of Mediterranean–Atlantic water exchange in the Hadley Centre model HadCM3, and its effect on modelled North Atlantic climate | Ocean Modelling | This paper tests the standard HadCM3 diffusive pipe parameterisation for Mediterranean-Atlantic water exchange versus two open seaway configurations to see how North Atlantic Ocean circulation and global-scale climate are affected by the chosen method of exchange representation | Ruza Ivanovic Ruza.Ivanovic@bristol.ac.uk |
| Ivanovic et al | 2014 | Modelling global-scale climate impacts of the late Miocene Messinian Salinity Crisis | Climate of the Past | This paper examines the effect of changes to the exchange rate and salinity of Mediterranean Outflow Water on North Atlantic Ocean circulation and global-scale climate during the Messinian SAlinity Crisis. The outflow salinity/volume scenarios are sensitivity-type experiments. While they do represent the kinds of changes that could have occurred during the Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.96-5.33 Ma), they are not strictly 'realistic', as further geological constraints are required to achieve this. | Ruza Ivanovic r.ivanovic@leeds.ac.uk |
| Izumi et al. 2022 | 2022 | Impacts of the PMIP4 ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate during the last glacial period | Climate Dynamics | This paper investigates impact of the three different LGM ice sheets on Northern Hemisphere climate. | Kenji IZUMI kenji.izumi@bristol.ac.uk |
| Izumi et al. 2023 | 2023 | Global footprints of Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations in a GCM | Quaternary Science Reviews | This paper investigates impacts of DO-like oscillations on the global climate and vegetation. | Kenji IZUMI kenji.izumi@bristol.ac.uk |
| Jones and Farnsworth 2022 et al | 2022 | Climatic and tectonic drivers shaped the tropical distribution of coral reefs | Nature Communications | Climate controls on reef ecosystems over the last 300 million years | Alex Farnsworth alex.farnsworth@bristol.ac.uk |
| Jost et al | 2005 | High-resolution simulations of the last glacial maximum climate over Europe: a solution to discrepancies with continental palaeoclimatic reconstructions? | Climate Dynamics | This paper shows that increasing resolution can improve certain aspects of the simulation of LGM temperatures compared with observations. The results here are for the HadAM and HadRM models. | Dan Lunt D.J.Lunt@bristol.ac.uk |
| Kandlbauer et al | 2013 | Climate and carbon cycle response to the 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption | Journal of Geophysical Research | This paper reports HadGEM2-ES simulations of the 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption. | Peter O. Hopcroft p.hopcroft@bham.ac.uk |
| Kennedy-Asser et al | 2019 | Assessing Mechanisms and Uncertainty in Modeled Climatic Change at the Eocene‐Oligocene Transition | Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology | Paper highlights model sensitivity to changes in boundary conditions and spin-up length at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition. | Alan Kennedy-Asser alan.kennedy@bristol.ac.uk |
| Kennedy et al | 2015 | Atmospheric and oceanic impacts of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene-Oligocene transition | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A | Paper highlights model sensitivity to changes in ice sheet size and palaeogeography at the Eocene-Oligocene Transition. | Alan Kennedy alan.kennedy@bristol.ac.uk |
| Loptson et al | 2014 | Investigating vegetation–climate feedbacks during the early Eocene | Climate of the Past | This paper shows that including vegetation feedbacks in HadCM3L by including TRIFFID in the model does warm the climate at high latitudes in the early Eocene, but not enough to explain the model-data discrepancy. | Claire Loptson C.Loptson@my.bristol.ac.uk |
| Lunt et al | 2008 | Closure of the Panama Seaway during the Pliocene: implications for climate and Northern Hemisphere glaciation | Climate Dynamics | This paper shows that Pliocene Panama gateway opening has a significant change on ocean circulation but not on Northern Hemisphere ice sheets | Dan Lunt D.J.Lunt@bristol.ac.uk |
| Lunt et al | 2008 | ''Sunshade World'': A fully coupled GCM evaluation of the climatic impacts of geoengineering | Geophysical Research Letters | This paper shows that sunshade geoengineering does not retrieve a preindustrial climate | Dan Lunt D.J.Lunt@bristol.ac.uk |
| Lunt et al | 2010 | CO2-driven ocean circulation changes as an amplifier of Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum hydrate destabilization | Geology | This paper shows that changes in CO2 during the Eocene could drive major changes in the ocean circulation, and hence potentially impact on gas hydrate stability | Dan Lunt D.J.Lunt@bristol.ac.uk |
| Lunt et al | 2010 | Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data | Nature Geoscience | This paper introduced the concept of Earth System Sensitivity. It is one of the only papers to make quantitative inferences about future climate change from palaeo evidence | Dan Lunt D.J.Lunt@bristol.ac.uk |
| Lunt et al | 2016 | Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation | Climate of the Past | We explore the influence of changing geography from the period 150 million years ago to 35 million years ago, using a set of 19 climate model simulations. We find that without any CO2 change, the global mean temperature is remarkably constant, but that regionally there are significant changes in temperature which we link back to changes in ocean circulation. Finally, we explore the implications of our findings for the interpretation of geological indicators of past temperatures. | Dan Lunt D.J.Lunt@bristol.ac.uk |
| Sagoo et al | 2014 | Energy budgets and energy transfer in perturbed physics simulations of the present day and early Eocene | x | This paper analyses the reasons for warmth in a set of physics parameter perturbation simulations using FAMOUS | Nav Sagoo N.Sagoo@bristol.ac.uk |
| Sarkar et al 2022 | 2022 | Shallow water records of the PETM: novel insights from NE India (eastern Tethys) | Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology | This paper compares shallow water PETM record from India with model simulations. Shallow marine PETM succession are rare; here we presented from the low paleolatitude NE India (eastern Tethys). The absence of coral reefs in NE India, in contrast to other Tethyan records, was driven by very high temperatures. Linking biotic records of this section with climate modelling allow to interpret the biotic differences across the Tethyan region. | Paul Valdes p.j.valdes@bristol.ac.uk |
| Scheiter et al | 2012 | Fire and fire-adapted vegetation promoted C4 expansion in the late Miocene | New Phytologist | This paper suggests that fire was a crucial driver for the expansion of C4 vegetation during the late Miocene | Catherine Bradshaw C.Bradshaw@bristol.ac.uk |
| Singarayer and Valdes | 2010 | High-latitude climate sensitivity to ice-sheet forcing over the last 120 kyr | Quaternary Science Reviews | This paper is the first time that anyone has attempted to simulate the last glacial interglacial cycle using a high resolution climate model (Hadley Centre climate model, HadCM3) and multiple time slices. Such a methodology does not capature the high frequency responses but does represent the orbital time scale changes | Joy Singarayer joy.singarayer@bristol.ac.uk |
| Stone et al | 2013 | The role of vegetation feedbacks on Greenland glaciation | Climate Dynamics | This paper presents a number of experiments using HadCM3 to test the sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet regrowth to vegetation feedbacks under preindustrial conditions. 12 experiments with present day and rebounded topgraphy are performed with bare soil, C3 grasses, C4 grasses, shrubs, broadleaf trees and needleleaf trees. two further experiments are run where vegetation type is predicted over an ice-free Greenland initiated from bare soil and needleleaf trees. | Emma Stone Emma.j.stone@bristol.ac.uk |
| Stone et al | 2010 | Investigating the sensitivity of numerical model simulations of the modern state of the Greenland ice-sheet and its future response to climate change | The Cryosphere | This paper presents an ensemble of Glimmer ice sheet model simulations which test the sensitivity of the modern state of the Greenland ice sheet to various parameters.The six 'best' ensemble members are selected and forced with future scenario HadCM3 climatologies showing a threshold of ice sheet collapse for carbon dioxide values between 400 and 560ppmv. | Emma Stone Emma.j.stone@bristol.ac.uk |
| Stone et al | 2013 | Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise | Climate of the Past | This paper uses pre-industrial and Last Integlacial (130, 125, 120ka) HadCM3 climates pseudo-coupled to an ice sheet model (Glimmer) to probabilistically estimate the Greenland ice sheet contribution to the Last Interglacial sea level highstand and implicates Antarctica to fully account for this sea level rise | Emma J Stone Emma.j.stone@bristol.ac.uk |
| Stone et al | 2016 | Impact of meltwater on high-latitude early Last Interglacial climate | Climate of the Past | This paper presents a spatial and temporal comparison of sea surface and surface air temperature data with a number of Last Interglacial HadCM3 simulations and shows that inclusion of freshwater forcing derived from Northern Hemisphere deglaciation plays an important role in early Last Interglacial climate evolution. | Emma Stone Emma.j.stone@bristol.ac.uk |
| Valdes et al. | 2017 | The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0 | Geosci. Model Dev. | This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the suite of HadCM3 climate models and the configurations used by the BRIDGE group. | Paul Valdes p.j.valdes@bristol.ac.uk |
| Valdes et al 2021 | 2021 | Deep Ocean Temperatures through Time | Climates of the Past | This paper present initial results from two unique sets of paleogeographic simulations covering the whole of the Phanerozoic at stage level resolutions. The climate model is HadCM3L (Hadley Centre climate model) which is a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model. | Paul Valdes p.j.valdes@bristol.ac.uk |
| Sun and Farnsworth 2024 et al | 2024 | Mega El Nio instigated the end-Permian mass extinction | Science | Mega El Nino drove the end-Permian mass extinction | Alex Farnsworth alex.farnsworth@bristol.ac.uk |